Welcome to our March 2024 House Price Index blog, where we explore the latest data and developments within the UK housing market.
In this edition, we will explore national house price changes, provide insights into different UK regions, and shed light on the current state of mortgage approvals and market sentiments.
Our analysis will encompass recent findings from major indices such as Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla to offer a full view of the market's current standing.
Whether you're a prospective buyer, a property seller, or simply keeping an eye on the market trends, this blog aims to equip you with the essential insights needed to navigate the property landscape effectively.
Table of Contents
Halifax House Price Index Summary
Rightmove House Price Index Summary
Zoopla House Price Index Summary
UK House Price Index Summary - March 2024
Halifax House Price Index Summary
The Halifax House Price Index for March 2024 provides an insightful glimpse into the UK's housing market dynamics during a period marked by gradual shifts in market conditions.
Below is a summary of the key data and trends identified in the report:
National House Price Indices
Average House Price: £288,430
Monthly Change: -1.0%
Quarterly Change: +2.0%
Annual Change: +0.3%
Regional Market Analysis
Northern Ireland: Continues to lead with the strongest performance among regions, witnessing a +4.3% annual increase, with average house prices now at £194,743.
Wales: Slowed growth to +1.9% annually, with the average property priced at £219,213.
Scotland: House prices rose +2.1% annually, reaching an average of £204,835.
Mortgage Market Insights
The broader housing market shows signs of a complex balance between an easing cost of living and relatively high interest rates. Despite a decline in mortgage rates earlier in the year, financial markets have adjusted their expectations regarding the extent and timing of Base Rate cuts, influenced by persistent core inflation.
Additional Insights
The market is experiencing a state of adjustment with homeowners still benefiting from earlier cheaper fixed-term mortgage deals and not yet feeling the impact of recent rate hikes.
This scenario is contributing to ongoing affordability challenges for prospective buyers.
Although house prices have shown resilience, the market conditions suggest a modest improvement in affordability is likely on the horizon, with no significant price surges expected shortly. Property prices have remained relatively stable over the past couple of years, showing limited fluctuation and maintaining a level nearly £50,000 above pre-pandemic figures.
Kim Kinnaird, Director of Halifax Mortgages, highlights the positive underlying demand as more individuals engage in home buying, supported by a strong labour market and climbing rental costs. This trend underscores the continued attractiveness of homeownership for those who can navigate the financial landscape effectively. However, the market's sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations remains a pivotal factor influencing future trends.
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Rightmove House Price Index Summary
The Rightmove House Price Index for March 2024 offers a detailed examination of the evolving landscape of the UK housing market, capturing the essence of national house price indices, regional market variances, and emerging mortgage market trends.
Here is a distilled summary of the crucial data points:
National House Price Indices
Average Asking Price (March 2024): £368,118, marking a significant monthly increase of +1.5%.
Annual Change: The price has seen a modest uplift of +0.8% compared to the same period last year.
Regional Market Analysis
Sales Agreed: There's a +13% year-over-year increase, indicating robust market activity.
Buyer Demand: Increased by +8% from the previous year, with significant traction in sectors less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations and in regions like London.
London Boroughs:
The boroughs exhibited a spectrum of annual price changes. Notably, Camden experienced a decline of -3.2%, whereas Richmond upon Thames and Hammersmith and Fulham saw increases of up to +5.6%.
Mortgage Market Insights:
Mortgage Rates: The average five-year mortgage rate escalated to 4.84% from 4.64%, suggesting rising borrowing costs.
Market Sensitivity: The aftermath of a subdued Spring Budget reflected a tempering in buyer demand, showcasing the market's responsiveness to external economic shifts.
Additional Insights:
Market Dynamics: The beginning of the year has shown signs of recovery from a subdued 2023, with marked increases in sales numbers and buyer demand. This uptick is skewed towards purchasers who are less affected by the higher mortgage costs.
Time to Find a Buyer: Currently, the time taken to secure a buyer is the longest since 2019, with properties priced attractively selling quickly, while those with optimistic pricing strategies face longer sales durations.
Zoopla House Price Index Summary
The Zoopla House Price Index for March 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK housing market, focusing on house price trends, regional variations, and mortgage market dynamics.
Here's a summary of the key findings:
National House Price Indices
Average House Price: £263,900
Monthly Change: +0.1% (up £200 from the previous month)
Annual Change: -0.3% (down £900 from last year)
Regional Market Analysis
Regional Trends: The East of England and South East continue to experience declines, with respective annual drops of -2.3% and -2.0%. Conversely, Northern Ireland (+4.1%) and Scotland (+2.1%) are seeing the strongest growth.
Market Dynamics: Sales volumes are recovering, and pricing levels are firming across the UK, with expectations that these trends will persist into the latter half of 2024.
Mortgage Market Insights
Mortgage Rates: A projected decrease in the Bank Rate to 3.5% by the end of 2025 is likely to maintain mortgage rates in the 4%+ range.
Market Sentiment: Despite rising confidence and an increase in market activity, buyers remain sensitive to prices, often negotiating sales at least 5% below the asking price.
Additional Insights
House Prices Stability: Despite the current modest decline, house prices have remained broadly stable over the past years, suggesting a balanced market without sharp price increases.
Future Outlook: With disposable incomes expected to rise by +3.5% over the year, improved affordability may drive market sentiment, though house price growth is predicted to remain flat.
Conclusion
After examining the March 2024 House Price Indices from Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla, it is evident that the UK housing market is demonstrating signs of steady recovery and overall stability.
House prices are gradually rising, and there has been a noticeable increase in both sales and buyer demand, suggesting a market that is regaining its momentum.
However, it's important to note that mortgage rates and market sensitivity continue to play crucial roles in shaping buyer decisions.
As we progress further into 2024, it will be fascinating to see how these trends evolve and how they will impact buyers, sellers, and the broader market landscape.
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