Welcome to our July 2024 House Price Index blog. Here, we break down the latest data on the UK housing market.
From national house prices and changes, insights into different UK regions, to the latest on mortgage approvals and market sentiments, we’ll cover it all.
We’ll also review the findings from Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla to give you a rounded view of where the market stands today.
Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or just keeping an eye on the market, this blog will provide you with the essential insights you need.
Table of Contents
Halifax House Price Index Summary
Rightmove House Price Index Summary
Zoopla House Price Index Summary
UK House Price Index Summary - July 2024
Halifax House Price Index Summary
The Halifax House Price Index report for July 2024 provides valuable insights into the UK housing market, showcasing key trends in national and regional house prices, along with detailed mortgage market analysis.
National House Price Indices
Average House Price: £291,268
Monthly Change: +0.8%
Quarterly Change: 0.0%
Annual Change: +2.3%
In July 2024, the average UK house price rose to £291,268, marking a modest increase of +0.8% from the previous month. This follows three months of relatively flat growth, signalling a gradual recovery in the housing market. On an annual basis, house prices grew by +2.3%, the highest annual growth rate since January 2024.
Regional Market Analysis
Northern Ireland: Continues to be the strongest performing region with house prices increasing by +5.8% annually. The average property price here is now £195,681.
North West: The region saw house prices rise by +4.1% year-on-year, with properties averaging £232,489.
Wales: House prices in Wales grew by +3.4%, with the average home now costing £221,102, reaching its highest price since October 2022.
Scotland: Property prices increased by +2.1% on an annual basis, with the average home priced at £205,264.
London: London remains the most expensive region, with average property prices now at £536,052. Prices in the capital rose by +1.2% over the last year.
Eastern England: The only region to record a decline, with property prices down by -0.4% year-on-year. The average home price here is £330,282.
Mortgage Market Insights
Mortgage Approvals: The Bank of England reports that mortgage approvals fell slightly by -0.3% in June 2024 to 59,976. However, this figure is still +11.7% higher than in June 2023.
Mortgage Affordability: The affordability of mortgages continues to be a challenge for prospective homeowners due to high interest rates. However, recent reductions in mortgage rates are providing some relief for those looking to remortgage or enter the market for the first time. Affordability constraints are expected to gradually improve as mortgage rates drop and incomes rise.
Housing Activity: UK home sales were slightly down by -0.6% from May 2024, but remain +7.6% higher year-on-year, reflecting a more stable market environment.
Additional Insights
The UK housing market in July 2024 showed signs of stabilization, with house prices increasing modestly and consistent annual growth across most regions. Northern Ireland, the North West, and Wales remain the strongest performers, while Eastern England experiences slight price declines.
Despite high mortgage rates continuing to pose challenges, the market is expected to experience steady, moderate growth for the remainder of the year. A potential cut in the Bank of England's Base Rate could further improve affordability and boost market activity, particularly in regions with slower price growth.
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Rightmove House Price Index Summary
The Rightmove House Price Index for July 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of the UK housing market, capturing essential trends in national house prices, regional variations, and key market insights.
National House Price Indices
Average Asking Price (July 2024): £373,493
Monthly Change: -0.4%
Annual Change: +0.4%
In July 2024, the average asking price for a property in the UK decreased slightly by -0.4%, equating to a drop of £1,617 from June. This decline is larger than the typical July drop, which has averaged -0.2% over the past 20 years. On an annual basis, asking prices have increased by +0.4%, reflecting the overall market stability despite seasonal fluctuations.
Regional Market Analysis
Sales Agreed: The number of sales agreed is up by +15% compared to the same period last year, indicating strong market activity despite economic uncertainties.
Buyer Demand: Buyer demand remains robust, although there is a slight decrease of -2% in the affordability-stretched first-time buyer sector.
Northern Regions: Consistent with previous months, stronger price growth is observed in the more affordable northern regions. The increase in new sellers is contributing to a healthier market balance.
East of England and London: These regions continue to lag behind, with the only recorded price declines. This trend underscores the affordability challenges that remain prevalent in higher-priced areas.
Market Insights
Election Impact: The political certainty following the recent General Election has had a stabilizing effect on the housing market. Despite the potential distractions from the election, the Euro football tournament, and summer holidays, market activity has remained resilient. The number of new sellers entering the market is +3% higher than last year, reflecting continued confidence among homeowners.
Mortgage Rates: The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 4.97%, down from the peak of 6.11% in July 2023. However, this rate remains significantly higher than the pre-rate increase average of 2.51% in July 2021.
Affordability Trends: The ongoing high mortgage rates are challenging affordability, particularly for first-time buyers. While there is anticipation of a potential Bank of England Base Rate cut, which could improve affordability, current conditions still present significant barriers for new entrants to the market.
Additional Insights
The housing market in July 2024 reflects a complex landscape, where political stability and potential monetary policy shifts are providing a cautiously optimistic outlook. The market remains buoyant, with increased sales activity and stable buyer demand. However, affordability issues continue to affect certain segments, particularly in higher-priced regions like London and the East of England. As the market heads into the Autumn, these dynamics will likely continue to shape the landscape, with potential rate cuts offering a possible boost to both affordability and buyer confidence.
Zoopla House Price Index Summary
The Zoopla House Price Index for July 2024 offers a comprehensive analysis of the UK's housing market, highlighting national house price trends, regional dynamics, and key insights into mortgage conditions.
National House Price Indices
Average House Price (June 2024): £265,600, reflecting a modest increase from £265,400 in May 2024.
Monthly Change: +0.1%
Annual Change: Flat, with a small increase of £310 over the past year.
Regional Market Analysis
Northern Ireland: Continues to lead with the strongest annual house price growth at +3.9%, driven by affordable housing and strong buyer demand.
North West: Exhibits robust growth, with a +1.5% annual increase in house prices, reflecting high buyer interest and relative affordability.
Scotland: Registers an annual price growth of +1.4%, demonstrating stability, with average prices increasing across most property types.
Wales: Shows a more moderate annual price growth of +1.1%, maintaining steady upward momentum in house prices.
London and South East: Buyers in London have regained confidence, paying 96.3% of the asking price, though the region remains constrained by affordability, leading to slight price decreases in areas like the East of England.
Mortgage Market Insights
Mortgage Rates: Remain stable at 4%, influencing buyer activity while encouraging more sellers to list homes for sale.
Market Activity: Despite the challenging mortgage environment, sales agreed are up 16% year-on-year, indicating the market's resilience.
Additional Insights
Supply of Homes: The supply of homes for sale has increased by 16% compared to 2023, marking the highest level of supply in six years. The average estate agent now has 33 homes for sale, providing buyers with more options and helping to keep price inflation in check.
Sales Activity: The increased supply and buyer demand have contributed to a 16% rise in sales agreed compared to the previous year. This indicates a balanced market with a healthy level of transactions and stable prices.
Future Outlook: Zoopla anticipates a continued modest rise in house prices through the rest of 2024, with prices expected to increase by up to 2% by year-end. Total sales for 2024 are projected to reach 1.1 million, reflecting a well-supported and balanced housing market.
While affordability remains a key constraint, particularly in the South of England, the forecast for rising incomes by 4.5% in 2024 is expected to improve affordability and provide further market stability into 2025.
Key Takeaways
National Growth: The average UK house price reached £291,268 in July 2024, reflecting a +0.8% monthly increase and a +2.3% annual growth, driven by gradual market recovery.
Regional Leaders: Northern Ireland continues to be the strongest performing region with house prices up +5.8%, while London remains the most expensive region, with an average price of £536,052.
Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates remain a challenge, with the five-year fixed rate averaging 4.97%, higher than pre-rate increases but down from the 2023 peak.
Sales Activity: The number of sales agreed is up by +16% year-on-year, with buyer demand remaining strong, particularly in northern regions where price growth is more robust.
Supply Increase: The supply of homes for sale has grown by +16% compared to 2023, providing more options for buyers and helping stabilize price inflation.
Market Outlook: Zoopla forecasts modest price rises of up to +2% by the end of 2024, supported by an anticipated 4.5% increase in incomes, helping improve affordability into 2025.
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